Closure & Follow-Through — Sales

ABQ Plumbing Heating & Cooling · HVAC, Plumbing & Electrical Sales · rolling 365 days · at the table vs after the visit

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Opportunity =

Where the sale actually happens

Sold on site means the estimate was marked sold at or before the moment the technician closed the job. Sold after the visit means it was approved later — the follow-up win.

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Trend

Cohorts anchored on the date the opportunity was booked, so a closure rate always belongs to the period that created it. Recent buckets close upward as follow-up lands.

Marketed closure rate Tech-generated closure rate Share closed at the table Opportunities (bars)

Sold on site revenue Sold after visit revenue

The closure arc

Every opportunity starts at the moment the estimate is written. The line is the share closed by day N, adjusted so an estimate written last week is never counted against a thirty-day horizon it has not had. The bars underneath are the decline — the share of all eventual wins that land on each day.

Marketed, cumulative Tech-generated, cumulative Wins landing that day

The decline, period by period

The same wins, binned instead of accumulated. Each bar is the share of the cohort that sold during that window, so the bars add up to the closure rate. Day zero stands alone because that is the at-the-table close.

Day 0, at the table Sold in that window Cumulative (right axis)

How long the later sales take

Days between the technician closing the job and the estimate being approved. This is the follow-up window — where it is long, the revenue is still arriving, and where it is empty, nobody chased it.

By sales department

Same splits, per sales business unit.

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Where the tech-generated work came from

For opportunities booked into sales off a technician lead, the department that found it. Marketed opportunities have no originating department and are excluded from this table.

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By technician

Credited to the primary technician on the job. Sort any column.

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About this build. HVAC, Plumbing and Electrical Sales, over a rolling year. Two pipelines, two ways to win: this separates the sale closed before leaving the driveway from the one that comes back days later — different skills, different tickets, and only one of them depends on follow-up actually happening. Figures are live: recomputed in Peaka every six hours over a rolling twelve months.

Definitions

Scope: A rolling 365 days of bookings, and only business units with SALES in the name — HVAC Sales, Plumbing Sales and Electrical Sales. Install, service, maintenance and drains are excluded entirely, so every rate on this page is a selling rate rather than a blend of selling and fulfilment. The originating-department table is the one exception: it reaches back to the service and maintenance units that fed the tech-generated work.
Opportunity: A job carrying a replacement-opportunity tag, or presenting an estimate at or above the threshold in the control bar. Closure is measured per opportunity, not per estimate, so three options that sell one job count as one win rather than one-in-three.
Sold on site / closed at the table: The first sold estimate on the job has a sold timestamp at or before the job's completion timestamp. Both are full timestamps, so this is a real comparison rather than a same-day approximation.
Sold after the visit: The first sold estimate was approved after the job was marked complete. The lag chart shows how long after.
The caveat that matters: Job completion is when the technician marks the job complete, not when they physically leave. A job left open for days makes a genuinely later sale look like an on-site close. The lag distribution is the honest read: everything at zero days is on-site behaviour regardless of which bucket it landed in.
The closure arc: Day zero is the day the estimate was written, so day-zero closes are the at-the-table wins. The curve is built on a fixed matured cohort: at a thirty-day horizon it counts only opportunities whose estimate is at least thirty days old, so the denominator is constant across the whole curve and every point is comparable. Changing the horizon changes the cohort, so the day-zero figure will shift a little between horizons. The bars are the marginal decline — what share of all eventual wins lands on each day. Where the curve goes flat is where chasing stops paying.
The decline chart: The same cohort as the arc, binned rather than accumulated. Each bar is the share of the whole matured cohort that sold inside that window, so the bars sum to the closure rate at that horizon rather than to 100%. Under each bar: the number of wins, their revenue, and what share of all wins that window represents. The dashed line is the running total against the right axis. Anything that closed after the horizon is shown in a faded tail bucket so it is visible without distorting the bins.
Trend anchoring: Every bucket is anchored on the booking date, so a closure rate belongs to the cohort that produced it. The last few buckets will always look weak because their follow-up window has not finished.