Opportunity Pipeline — Tech-Generated vs Marketed

About this build. One question, two pipelines: of the replacement and large-estimate opportunities we found this period, how many did we convert, and what did they produce. Every count carries its rate, and every number drills to the jobs behind it. Figures are live: recomputed in Peaka every six hours over a rolling twelve months.

What each number means

Opportunity

A job that carried a replacement-opportunity tag, or presented an estimate at or above the large-estimate threshold in the control bar. Set the threshold to "any estimate" to count every job where something was quoted. This is the unit of everything below: one job, one opportunity, one outcome.

Opportunity close rate, not estimate close rate

An opportunity counts as closed when at least one estimate on it sold. A technician who presents three options and sells one has closed one opportunity, not one-third of three. The estimate basis is available in the control bar for comparison, and the contrast panel on the first tab shows both at once so the gap is visible rather than accidental.

The two pipelines

Tech-generated means the job traces back to an earlier job through Job Generated Lead Source. Marketed is every opportunity that does not. They never overlap, so the two sides add to the whole.

Why the two pipelines overlap on purpose

A marketed service call where the technician spots a replacement is counted twice, and should be: once as a marketed opportunity, because that visit could sell work on its own, and once as a feeding opportunity, because it could hand a lead to sales. No revenue is double-counted — the two outcomes land on different jobs. Tech-generated sales come only from the set estimate jobs; marketed sales come only from jobs with no tech-generated origin.

The feeding mechanism

Opportunities found in any department except sales, and whether each one became a set estimate job. Conversion is credited to the period the opportunity was found, not the period the follow-on job was booked, so a department's conversion rate reflects the work it did that month.

Which technician

Closes are credited to the primary technician on the job — the one with the most paid hours against it. Lead creation is credited separately to the technician recorded on the lead source, so the finder and the closer are never confused. Apprentices are included here because the drill-down is diagnostic rather than a scorecard; the technician dashboard is where they are filtered out.

Maturity buffer

Opportunities found in the last two weeks have not had time to close, and including them silently drags every close rate down. The buffer drops the most recent bookings from all calculations. Set it to none if you want the raw period, but expect the final weeks to look worse than they are.

Cancellation rate

Jobs in Canceled status as a share of the jobs in that row. On the feeding side it measures whether the leads a department sets actually get run; a high rate with high volume is the signature of leads set to hit a count rather than to sell work.

Why Lead creators shows more leads than TGL feeding

The feeding tab counts only leads whose source job qualified as an opportunity, because it measures how well flagged opportunities get converted. The creators tab counts every lead a technician set, qualified or not, because that is what the technician actually did. The From a qualified opp column is the bridge: it reconciles to the feeding tab, give or take the handful of leads that carry no recorded creator, and the gap between it and Leads set is the volume of leads coming off jobs nobody flagged — worth knowing, since those leads close at their own rate.

Lead sales per lead set

Total sold value divided by every lead set, closed or not. It is the number that survives gaming: setting more leads only helps if they sell.